Reducing reliance on natural gas is expected to become an increasingly important part of Evanston’s efforts to reach its Climate Action and Resilience Plan goals.
That is a major takeaway from a study conducted by Northwestern University Ph.D. candidate Elisabeth Latawiec as part of her internship with the City of Evanston. The study looked at whether the city can reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and how certain factors – such as making the electric grid more environmentally friendly, reducing natural gas use and even switching gas stoves to electric stoves at benchmarked buildings (at least 20,000 square feet) – would make a significant difference.
Latawiec presented her study to the Environment Board at its Thursday meeting. She acknowledged that there were some limitations. With only 100 days to complete a study, there was only so much analysis she could do, and some factors, such as the effect of electric vehicles on the numbers, fell by the wayside. But the board felt that the presentation still contained valuable insights that the city should keep in mind as it works to reduce emissions.
The study looked at five scenarios. Scenario 1, which assumed that emission reductions will continue at the same pace as they are right now, projects that Evanston would reach its goals by 2050, or even by 2040, if it takes Renewable Energy Certificates into account. But Latawiec warned that this was the least realistic scenario, since it treats all emissions the same.
In the past, emissions from electricity production and vehicles have decreased, while emissions from natural gas and waste have remained the same.
If that remains the case for the next 25 years, she said, the emission reduction will slow, and waste and natural gas emissions will account for an increasingly large portion of emissions. Under that scenario, Evanston would only be able to meet 73% of its CARP goals by 2050.
Latawiec then looked at a scenario that took the effect of greening the grid into account. While this would lead to Evanston meeting its goal quicker in the short term, by 2030 the rate would plateau as natural gas and waste emissions offset those gains. Using the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2023 predictions for converting natural gas stoves to electric stoves did not significantly improve the numbers, either.
But the study estimates that converting Evanston buildings that fall under the Healthy Buildings Ordinance, or benchmarked buildings, from natural gas to electric and greening the grid would lead to 46% decrease in their energy use and 37% decrease in natural gas use in Evanston as a whole. Overall, this would mean that Evanston could reach 75% of CARP goals by 2050.
Latawiec noted that, while this scenario still falls short, it gets closer than any other scenario except Scenario 1.
Environment Board Member James Cahan said that while there wasn’t much Evanston could do about the electric grid and vehicle emissions, the city could do something to encourage moving away from natural gas, and that could make a significant difference.
“We show that the biggest bang for our buck is natural gas,” Cahan said. “That’s, to me, a significant observation [Latawiec] made.”
Environment Board co-chair Michelle Redfield said she appreciated the analysis.
“This is stark,” she added. “Natural gas is where we really need to focus.”
Study points to reducing natural gas as key to Evanston’s zero-emissions future is from Evanston RoundTable, Evanston's most trusted source for unbiased, in-depth journalism.